"Not very Likely"

"We didn't decide on upset recovery training because it's expensive and it's not a very likely thing." Heard that recently from a major corporate flight department. Not very likely?? Boeing's "Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Aircraft Accidents" shows LOC-I as the most common fatal accident cause between 2003 and 2012, resulting in almost twice (1648 vs. 971) as many fatalities as the next most common cause, CFIT. Statistics for general aviation show the same thing.

Not very likely? Maybe if you never fly to airports where bigger aircraft land. Maybe if you never fly near mountains. Maybe if you are personally able to accurately forecast windshear. (Great talent! Care to share it?) Maybe if you never suffer an autopilot or flight control malfunction or make any of a host of mistakes your fellow pilots seem to be able to make, from private pilots to astronauts.

Yup! Not very likely. Sort of like an actual engine failure at V1. We don't spend much money training for that, do we? 

Not very likely? Nonsense! What is really going on is; we're afraid of something we know nothing about. Which is precisely why it may kill us!